VOTER BIHAR MOOD SURVEY
1st August to 15th September 2025
SNAP SHORT
Total ACs : 243 (2 ST, 38 SC)
Total PCs : 40 (6 SC)
Total Districts : 38
Total Administrative Zones : 9 (Patna, Gaya, Muzaffarpur, Chhapra, Darbhanga, Saharsa, Purnea, Bhagalpur, Munger)
METHODOLOGY
The People’s Pulse Research Organization, a specialist in fieldwork-based political and electoral studies, conducted an exhaustive 45-day ground-level study across poll-bound Bihar from August 1 to September 15, 2025 – approximately one month prior to the scheduled Assembly elections.
A team of 20 research scholars, divided into four groups of five members each, systematically covered all 38 districts. Three groups focused on in-depth assessments in 9 administrative divisions in Bihar, spending 10-12 days in each administrative division to gauge localized voter sentiments. The fourth group studied the impact of “Voter Adhikar Yatra” to capture overarching moods and emergent issues influencing the electorate.
Employing a qualitative inferential approach with purposive sampling, researchers engaged in open-ended, free-flowing conversations to elicit unfiltered views on critical themes.
These included voter grievances with potential electoral impact, perceptions of the NDA government’s governance under Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, evaluations of the opposition Mahagathbandhan (INDIA alliance), and opinions on emerging players like the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) and Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP). Interactions incorporated social listening techniques, drawing insights from diverse demographics through candid dialogues devoid of bias or prompting.
Respondents, spanning urban and rural strata, exhibited high engagement and candour, fostering authentic revelations. To validate findings, the team consulted political observers, journalists, and academics for Macro-level perspectives that contextualized grassroots narratives.
The inquiry was rigorous, averaging 15-20 group discussions daily, each lasting 25-30 minutes, yielding a rich tapestry of qualitative data triangulated for reliability.
Neck to Neck Contest Between NDA and Mahagathbandhan in Bihar
In an election that could potentially define the future course of Indian politics, Bihar, going to polls soon, could go either way – the incumbent National Democratic Alliance (NDA) or the India Alliance.
The gap between the two alliances is so narrow that a combination of factors – selection of candidates, Tejaswi Yadav’s ability to attract castes/voters beyond his traditional supporters and whom will Prashant Kishore hurt the most, could decide the final winner.
Much like last time when the gap in percentage of votes polled by BJP alliance and RJD alliance was narrow, the scenario emerging now suggests that both formations are more or less in the same position – with NDA having a slender lead of just 1 percent. A couple of percentage points shift closer to the polls could tilt the balance in favour of either side,
The Key findings are as follows:
- Allotment of tickets will make a significant impact as a good number of EBC respondents felt they are open to voting for India Alliance if proper representation is given to them. In other words, India alliance has to look beyond MY Candidates & adopt PDA formula followed by Akhilesh Yadav in Uttar Pradesh for the loksabha elections in 2024.
- The Voter Adhikar Yatra of Rahul Gandhi created a huge buzz arousing interest even among non-Congress voters but whether caste groups not positive to RJD alliance so far will shift to them because of the Yatra is still doubtful.
- A sense of fatigue, age factor of Nitish Kumar are weighing down Janata Dal (United) though a good number of EBCs, women and Dalits still back him.
- Notwithstanding the positive impact of Rahul Gandhi’s yatra, the organisational weakness of Congress and its unwillingness to allow Tejaswi to play the lead role and let go its weak candidates could damage the prospects of India alliance unless corrected.
Here is the full Summary :
Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 is witnessing a literal neck to neck contest between the NDA and the India Alliance (Mahagathbandhan). The Bihar Assembly Elections, which is dominating National attention, is heading for a dramatic finish between the ruling NDA and MGB.
Politics of Bihar mainly revolves about two grand alliances- the Ruling NDA comprising JD (U), BJP, HAM of Ex. CM Jitan Ram Manjhi, LJP (R) of Chirag Paswan, RLM of Upendra Kushwaha and the Mahagathbandhan or India alliance comprising RJD, Congress, Left Parties and VIP of Mukesh Sahani. Like previous elections, this time the electoral contest in Bihar seems to be moving towards a bi-polar fight between the ruling NDA and the main opposition India alliance.
According to the mood survey conducted for News Website “South First” by Peoples Pulse research organization the NDA is leading over the MGB by just one percent. The NDA is likely to get vote share 41- 44%, MGB 40-42.5%, Jan Suraaj Party let by Mr. Prashanth Kishor 6-8% and others 7.5- 9.0%. The Mood Survey factors a margin of error plus or minus 3 percent.
On the basis of the Mood Survey, the NDA currently has a thin lead over the India alliance despite the Voter Adhikar Yatra and the Vote Chori allegations. Most of respondents across the state said that Yatra won’t change their old established voting patterns and “jo jahan deta tha vahin dega”.
However, it was observed that major non-direct beneficiary communities of the incumbent government like EBCs are taking an open approach towards the India alliance now. But as of now, the NDA seems to be having an edge over the INDIA alliance in terms of weightage of castes and communities rooting for them.
Voters across various Regions express discontent with the ruling NDA Government led by Mr. Nithish Kumar on key issues such as price rise, Unemployment, Migrations, and Development. While there is strong anti-incumbency sentiment working against the ruling NDA, the same is being split between MGB and Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party, which could emerge as a potential kingmaker with a 6- 8 % vote share.
In the upcoming Bihar assembly elections, most of the voters will vote according to local issues like performance of the MLA, infrastructure problems etc while bigger-national issues like SIR might take a back seat. Caste loyalties will also play a greater role in Bihar politics and add this is the communal issues that have come to play in recent times.
Previous elections in Bihar were always around a strong narrative. In 2005, it was a vote for change and 2010 was a vote for ‘sushasan’ or continuance of that change. 2015 election was around a significant socio-political churning after coming together of Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav against a resurgent BJP which had just a year back (2014) swept national elections.
2020 was all about a new wave of government jobs and employment opportunities created by the government after a long time and the credit for it. However, this time there is a lack of a binding narrative despite both alliances and the Jan Suraaj party raising issues of their own.
In this scenario, amicable seat sharing and representation in tickets becomes extremely significant. The election outcome will depend on voter turnout last minute electioneering. Majority respondents stated that tickets will matter a lot. A significant number of EBC respondents said they are not averse to voting for India alliance if proper representation is given to them in terms of tickets. The same goes for the NDA. If it fails to keep its house in order and Chirag Paswan, if Nitish Kumar and the BJP fail to reach an understanding in terms of division of seats, a rebellion by any of them could cause the current leads to evaporate, giving an advantage to the India alliance.
The “PDA” strategy of Akhilesh Yadav worked very well in 2024 Lok Sabha in UP where tickets of “MY” candidates were brought down and more candidates were fielded from other communities. However, it was also observed during the Mood survey that Tejaswi Yadav does not have as strong hold over Muslim and Yadav voters as Akhilesh Yadav has in UP and hence reducing their tickets could cause a rebellion which could be counter-productive for Indian alliance, Puarticuularly RJD.
Joblessness, Inflation and Migration
Across regions, youths talked about increasing joblessness while women talked about inflation/ price rise and questioned the role of both state and central governments around these issues. However, they also admitted that caste affinities will also matter a lot. Both alliances are talking about giving more jobs and welfare benefits but Jan Suraaj (JS henceforth) of Prashant Kishor seems to have taken lead in terms of making this issue reach out to a wider audience. This however does not mean that his party will get votes in similar proportions to the support on the issues he is raising.
Political Inclination of Women and Youth
Women voters- especially those associated with the “JIVIKA”, the State Rural Livelihood Mission of Bihar (who number in millions) are more inclined towards Nitish Kumar. Women voters across castes and regions praised him for his women empowerment policies like prohibition, increase in widow pension and women para-govt workers, stipend etc. Youth voters talk about issues like employment, education and migration but admitted that their caste affinities will play a role in deciding whom to vote.
The overall perception of Nitish Kumar among youth voters was not neither overtly positive (there is still lack of jobs and opportunities), nor negative (he did bring peace, stability and progress compared to old days) giving him a good standing debunking the common perception that he is disliked by the youth. Farmers in Bihar do not act as a somewhat united lobby and are divided along caste and community lines.
Schemes and Promises Shaping Bihar’s 2025 Electoral Battle field:
As Bihar hurtles toward its October-November 2025 Assembly elections, major parties are unleashing a barrage of welfare schemes and promises to combat anti-incumbency, unemployment, and migration. With 243 seats at stake, these populist measures—targeting women, youth, and the poor—could sway
a fragmented electorate amid a multi-cornered fight between NDA (JD(U)-BJP), Mahagathbandhan (RJD-Congress-Left), and Prashant Kishor’s Jana Suraaj Party (JSP).
Chief Minister Nithish Kumar’s NDA has rolled out targeted schemes to fortify its base among women (a silent weapon) and low-income households. The 125 units of free electricity (Free Bijli) from August 2025 benefits 1.67 crore families, slashing bills by Rs.200-300 monthly and countering power woes in rural areas. This mirrors opposition pledges but positions NDA as deliverers, potentially eroding RJD’s appeal in EBC-dominated seats. The Mukhya Mantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana offers Rs.10,000 incentives for women’s employment, plus low-interest loans up to Rs.2 lakh for self-help groups a game – changer in a state with 50% female voters. NDA also touts 12 lakh jobs created, promising 1 crore more, alongside tribal-focused land rights and reservations.
RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav counters with aggressive promises to reclaim youth and women votes, vowing a “New Bihar” in 20 months. Key sops include 200 units of free electricity (trumping NDA’s 125), Rs.2,500 monthly to women under a revamped scheme, and a 100% domicile policy for jobs to end migration. The Rs.100 examination fee cap aims to ease student burdens, while pledges for ITIs and polytechnics in every gram panchayat target rural skilling. The INDIA bloc’s manifesto emphasizes women quotas and safety, amplified by Voter Adhikar Yatra focusing on jobs and vote integrity.
JSP’s Prashant Kishor disrupts with a five-point agenda: quality education via schools in panchayats, youth jobs, Rs.2,000 senior pensions, and low-interest personal loans for women. Promising migration curbs and anti-corruption.
Law and order
This issue brought mixed responses. While the NDA voters said they do not want return of ‘Jungle Raj’ which was ‘hallmark of the Lalu days’, the India alliance voters said law and order has completely deteriorated and corruption, commission taking by the government officials and violent crimes are on a rise.
Impact of Voter Adhikar Yatra
The general response to the Yatra is positive across all regions of the state. People across places and castes are saying that crowds turned up in large numbers in the Yatra at their own expanses. Majority respondents believe that although there were some people from outside, most of the crowd in the Yatra comprised of local people who had come to attend it and see Rahul Gandhi and Tejaswi Yadav. This response was similar in both urban and rural areas. Other than Baniyas and Brahmins at some places- who tried to paint it as flop, majority respondents considered it as a very charged event.
A significant number of respondents across categories dubbed it as a ‘celebration’ as after generations, a member of the Gandhi family was coming at their ‘doorstep’ and so nobody wanted to miss the chance. Overall, if one does not delve in its impact on caste arithmetic and voting trends of castes and limits the survey to perception of Yatra among common people, his/her findings may turn out to be overwhelmingly positive.
A thorough enquiry along the lines of caste and vote preference reveals that the Yatra is unable to add new castes to the India alliance block and has failed to alter old voting patterns. No new caste/communities got added to the India alliance vote bank due to the Yatra.
The Kurmis, EBCs and women voters- especially those associated with the JIVIKA (who number in millions) are more inclined towards Nitish Kumar while BJP has support among the forward castes, Baniyas and EBCs in some pockets. Paswans in majority areas were inclined towards Chirag Paswan while Harijans and Musahars along with smaller SC communities like Rajaks were divided. It was surprising to find that most core BJP voters hate Nitish Kumar and don’t consider any state BJP leader worth being CM but have an extremely positive attitude towards Chirag Paswan. Muslims and Yadavs were strongly towards India alliance and in some pockets like Champaran and Mujaffarpur, Bind-Mallahs are with VIP.
Congress has small pockets of influence across castes from Brahmins and Bhumihars to Dalits but most of these are driven by local leaders of these castes having strong influence. Among the non-Yadavs OBCs, Dhanuk or Kushwahas are the most divided and numerically powerful castes. They vote for India alliance in most of south Bihar, but not so in north. Most of respondents from these communities said that Yatra won’t change their old established voting patterns and “jo jahan deta tha vahin dega”. However, it was observed that major non-direct beneficiary communities of the incumbent government like EBCs are taking an open approach towards the India alliance now.
Major Castes and their Polictical Inclination
General:
The general caste population of Bihar is around 15.5% of the total population. Most of the general caste voters are inclined towards the BJP and JD (U). While RJD has very little support left now among the Rajputs, it is actually disliked by the Brahmins and Bhumihars. However, Congress still has some small pockets of support among these castes mainly due to old loyalties or influential local leaders coming from these communities.
Brahmins:
Brahmins are around 3% of the state’s population and their major areas of influence are Mithila and Tirhut and some seats of Shahabad. Brahmins across the state are more inclined towards the BJP. However, on some seats due to anger against BJP candidate or candidate of own caste from the INC, they are also favouring INC.
Rajputs:
Rajputs are 3.4%of the state’s population and their areas of influence are spread across Bihar from Magadh and Shahabad in south Bihar to Tirhut and Kosi-Simanchal in North. Rajput voters are overwhelmingly favouring the BJP across the state. However, due to past associations, RJD has some support left among them while Congress is also managing some foothold among them through influential local Rajput leaders in some pockets.
Bhumihars:
Bhumihars comprise 2.8% of the state’s population and their areas of influence are Magadh-Shahabad belt, Begusarai and Tirhut. Bhumihars are more inclined towards BJP while Congress and JD(U) both have some pockets of influence among them due to individual leaders. However, RJD is disliked a lot by them.
Kayasth/Lala:
Kayasths are mostly concentrated in cities and towns and make only 0.6% of the state’s population. Kayasth voters are heavily inclined towards the BJP.
OBCs:
OBCs are a major voting block of Bihar, constituting around 27% of the state’s population. Major communities among them are.
Yadav:
Yadavs are 14.2% of the whole state’s population and barring the Simanchal region, they are present in good numbers across the state. They are primarily inclined towards the RJD. However, BJP and JD U also have made inroads among the Yadavs. In Mithila and Kosi-Simanchal region, Yadavs also vote for BJP and JD U while in places like Samastipur, they vote for BJP’s Yadav candidates in Lok Sabha but switch loyalty to RJD during assembly elections. The survey found growing communal sentiments among the Yadavs which should worry the RJD.
Kurmis:
Kurmis are 2.8% of the state’s population and Nalanda-Nawada in south Bihar is their major power center. Across the state, the Kurmis identify with CM Nitish Kumar and vote for him.
Kushwahas:
Kushwaha or Dangi/Mahatos are 4.2% of the state population. As an individual OBC caste group, they are the second biggest after the Yadavs and are found across the state. Kushwaha voters are divided across parties and in different regions have different party preference. The survey found that in most of the South Bihar, the Kushwahas vote for India alliance while in most of the north, they vote for the NDA.
Telis, Kanus and Baniyas:
Teli, Kanu and OBC baniyas together comprise slightly more than 7% of the state’s population and are spread across the state. Baniyas are also more inclined towards the BJP but in some regions like Tirhut have a tendency to prefer a candidate from their caste irrespective of party affiliation.
EBCs:
EBCs or the Most Backward castes are a group of castes which have a separate reservation quota within the Backward Classes reservation in Bihar. They constitute around 36% of the state’s population and are mostly considered the ‘king makers’ in Bihar’s politics, preferring to vote silently and decisively.
Most of the EBC communities used to be vote banks of Nitish Kumar but recently BJP has also made inroads among them-especially in the Simanchal region, using communal sentiments against the Muslims.
Gangauta, Kewart Mandals and Nishad/Mallah/Bind:
Nishad voters are divided among various communities in various regions like Gangauta in Bhagalpur, Kewart Mandals in Supaul-Araria, Bind and Mallah in Tirhut etc. They used to be JD(U) voters primarily but BJP made inroads among them in districts like Mujaffarpur and Darbhanga. In some pockets of the state like Champaran and Mujaffarpur, Bind-Mallahs are also with the VIP of India alliance.
Pachpaniya or Smaller castes like Nuniya/Chauhans, Kumhar, Prajapati, Lohar, Amatya Mandal, Nai etc, which are scattered over the state are also divided between various parties but their major inclination is towards Nitish Kumar’s JD U and the BJP.
SC:
Scheduled Castes in Bihar comprise 19.65% of the total population. Among the SC voters, the major communities are-
Chamar:
Comprising 5% of the state’s total population, Chamars are themost significant SC caste of Bihar. They are spread across the whole state but South Bihar and Tirhut have their highest concentration. Majority of Chamar voters are inclined towards India alliance parties- Congress and RJD and the Left parties especially CPI ML have considerable influence among them in Shahabad range and Siwan-Gopalganj districts.
Paswan:
Paswan or Dusadhs- comprisingmore than 5% of the state’s population are the second most influential SC caste group of Bihar and are concentrated in South Bihar and parts of Tirhut, Vaishali district etc. Paswans in majority areas were inclined towards Chirag Paswan and his party LJP (R).
Manjhi/Dom/Musahar:
Among the SCs, Musahars are the most marginal community and their concentration is mostly in south Bihar but they are also found in smaller numbers across the state. Comprising 3% of the state’s population, Musahars are divided in terms of their party loyalties. The survey found that in Gaya region, Musahars vote for ex CM Jitan Ram Manjhi’s party but it changes in Shahabad where they vote for India alliance. In Supaul district of Kosi Simanchal they preferred the JDU while in Tirhut liked the BJP.
Smaller SC communities like Rajak/Dhobi etc are also divided among various parties of the major two alliances and their preferences change from region to region.
Muslims:
Muslims constitute 17.7% of the state’s population and are divided across regions but Kishanganj, Araria, Katihar and parts of Purnea have a very high concentration of Muslim voters. The survey found that Muslim voters of Bihar are supporting the India alliance overwhelmingly this time and the support for Congress among them is slowly overtaking that for the RJD. AIMIM may cut only a fraction of Muslim votes that too only in the Kishanganj Lok Sabha constituency areas.
STs:
ST comprises 1.68% of the state’s population and are mainly concentrated in the regions lying on borders of Jharkhand-West Bengal. Bihar has two ACs reserved for them and most of the ST voters are divided among the India and NDA alliances.
SWOT Analysis of Various Parties
Bhartiya Janata Party:
The BJP has an umbrella social alliance of Upper Castes, EBCs, Baniya-Teli OBC castes and sections of Dalits. However, one big drawback is that it still lacks major support among the EBCs. The survey found that none of the state leaders of Bihar BJP is liked by voters of the party across the state and they admitted that they vote BJP looking at Modi. It was surprising to find that most core BJP voters hate Nitish Kumar but have an extremely positive attitude towards Chirag Paswan. As of now, BJP is standing at around 28-29% vote share at its own.
BJP Strengths include robust organizational machinery, heavy digital investments and targeted schemes like women welfare incentives, which have boosted female voter turnout by 5% since 2020. BJP’s alliances amplify its reach, countering anti-incumbency through emotional outreach and Hindutva undertones, though Bihar remains less polarized than other states.
However, weaknesses persist, heavy reliance on Nitish Kumar for EBC and Mahadalit votes, as BJP lacks a strong local CM face, risking vulnerability if alliances fray. Internal tensions with Chirag Paswan’s LJP(RV) over law-and-order. Caste fragmentation, youth disillusionment with unemployment, and Prashant Kishor’s JSP siphoning upper-caste support. Overall, BJP’s edge hinges on alliance stability amid a multi-cornered fight.
Rashtriya Janata Dal:
The RJD is the principal opposition party of Bihar and Muslims and Yadavs are its core vote bank, with Kushwahas, Dalits and some other castes adding to its vote tally in different regions. The Voter Adhikar Yatra of Rahul Gandhi did strengthen its holding among these communities but the party is disliked by upper castes and Banias and still feared by the EBCs and women who do not trust it. Until it makes inroads in them, it will still remain concentrated in a island of 30-31% voters’ support.
The survey found that in regions like Mithila, Kosi and Simanchal, a section of Yadavs is increasingly developing communal sentiments and tendency to vote for BJP if India alliance fields a Muslim. Further, Congress is increasing its support among the Muslims at the cost of RJD. RJD Weaknesses include dynastic image and corruption taints from Lalu Prasad’s era, alienating non-Yadav voters.
RJD, led by Tejashwi Yadav, positions itself as the anti-NDA vanguard in the Mahagathbandhan, capitalizing on youth momentum and promises like 200 free electricity units, Rs 2,500 monthly for women, and 100% domicile jobs to curb migration.
Janata Dal United:
Despite many obituaries having been written about the JD (U) and Nitish Kumar, both remain to be the ‘X’ factor for any electoral contest in the state even now.
The survey found that despite depletion, Nitish Kumar and his party still command sizable support among the EBCs and Dalits while Women and Kurmis back them strongly and Upper Castes still trust him. A significant percentage of respondents across castes, regions and age said that currently there is no better alternative to replace him. Nitish Kumar’s biggest strength- according to the survey, is the ‘optionlessness’ to replace him and the transferability of his vote bank, which would make him a formidable partner in any of the alliances, despite a lower vote share support. However, some respondents did raise concerns about his mental health across the state.
JD(U), under veteran Nitish Kumar, anchors the NDA with its governance legacy, emphasizing schemes like 125 free electricity units and women’s employment incentives (Rs.10,000), appealing to EBCs and Mahadalits. Strengths include Nitish’s eight-term experience as CM face, anti-corruption image, and pivotal role in alliances—his shifts have reshaped Bihar’s Political Scenario. Nitish’s “silent weapon” among women voters, via welfare, could tip tight contest.
Weaknesses revolve around Nitish’s age (74), perceived fatigue, and flip-flops, fueling anti-incumbency. Ally frictions, like Chirag Paswan’s law-and-order barbs, expose vulnerabilities. In a polarized fray, JD (U)’s survival depends on Nitish’s health and alliance cohesion.
Indian National Congress:
The Voter Adhikar Yatra of Rahul Gandhi and continuous activities of the party in the state, along with a satisfactory performance in the Lok Sabha elections 2024 have added to the strength of the party and kept it ranks and files charged.
Congress is the only party in the India alliance in Bihar which has an umbrella support base from Upper Castes to OBCs, Dalits and Muslims. However, its support is scattered and dependent largely on individual leaders. Still, the survey found that among the Dalits, upper castes and Muslims, Rahul Gandhi’s popularity has increased compared to the past, especially after the Yatra. In regions like Simanchal, south Bihar and Champaran, it was more visible. However, the party still lacks robust organizational machinery to stand at its own in Bihar and needs the support of alliance partner RJD to become a formidable player. Lack of OBC-EBC leadership is a great drawback that its still facing.
Congress, part of Mahagathbandhan, seeks revival through social justice planks like Rahul Gandhi’s yatras on migration and women quotas. Strengths include alliance synergies with RJD, boosting its upper-caste and minority base.
Congress party weaknesses are glaring, organizational fragility from prolonged RJD dependence, lacking grassroots depth and winnable candidates. Seat-sharing spats—refusing “unwinnable” dumps—expose rifts, with reluctance to endorse Tejashwi as CM face. In Bihar’s alliance-driven polls, Congress’s fate ties to MGB cohesion.
Lok Janshakti Party (Ramvilas):
Chirag Paswan’s party has a formidable support base among the Dusadh/Paswan voters who act as its core vote base across the state. The survey also found that other than his party’s supporters, a majority of BJP voters also consider him as best suited to be the CM candidate of NDA.
His rebellion and fielding of candidates against the JD (U) in 2020 elections cost Nitish Kumar dearly and caused a loss of more than 20 seats to the NDA. If it happens this time as well, then NDA may suffer a severe loss in the tight race for 2025 elections.
LJP(RV), helmed by Chirag Paswan, rides high on its 2024 Lok Sabha sweep (5/5 seats), positioning as a Dalit powerhouse with a Bahujan makeover to broaden appeal beyond Paswans. Strengths include Chirag’s charisma, youth connect via “Chirag ka Chaupal” campaigns. His contesting personally boosts strike rate, filling leadership voids in NDA amid Nitish’s wane. The party’s anti-feudal stance resonates in SC belts.
LJP(RV),Weaknesses stem from limited caste base (5-6% Dalit votes), over-reliance on Chirag’s persona, and intra-NDA tensions—his Nitish critiques risk alliance fractures, seen as a “double-edged sword.” Veiled solo contest threats could backfire if unmet demands lead to splits. Jan Suraaj Party Dalit pull and RJD’s MY consolidation erodes margins, while legacy battles with next-gen rivals like Tejashwi limit expansion in multi-cornered polls. LJP(RV)’s impact hinges on NDA unity.
Jan Suraaj:
As of now, Jan Suraaj is the only party in the state which has a visibility across Bihar and the capability to contest all 243 seats. The survey found that ‘mahaul’ of Jan Suraaj is everywhere but it’s difficult to find core voters who will be backing it at all costs come what may.
In this situation, Jan Suraaj is expected to be heavily dependent on future rebel candidates of both NDA and India alliance to draw a sizable amount of votes or clinch any seats as its own candidates and party leaders lack that potential. The survey found that under the current situation, Jan Suraj is not likely to win a single seat in Bihar.
In Bihar’s sweltering political arena, Prashant Kishor’s Jana Suraaj Party (JSP) ignites a rebellion against caste-ridden complacency. JSP’s surge signals Bihar’s tectonic shift, from caste fortresses to merit militias. As a youth spearhead in a jobless quagmire, it could vault NDA by gutting MGB or, in Kishor’s gamble, shatter the board. Weeks from verdict, JSP tests Bihar’s soul—disruption or delusion? The under-25 vanguard decides, forging a legacy beyond ballots.
Vikasheel Insaan Paty (VIP):
The VIP of Mukesh Sahani is more or less limited to certain pockets of Tirhut-Champaran and Mithila-Kosi and Bind/Mallah/Nishad voters favour the party in only few seats. While the Yatra gave a grand opportunity to Mukesh Sahani to reach out throughout the state and extend his influence, he still has a long way to go to command the support of EBC communities. However, his presence in the India alliance, along with the Congress, gives a ‘soft’ image to the India alliance.
HAM:
Ex CM Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM is more or less a regional party of Bihar and its core support caste- Manjhi or Musahars don’t support it across the state. In terms of activities too, its programs are limited and the party has more of a ‘exhibitory’ value than actual political significance for the NDA of which its part. The survey found that due to lack of sizable support or strong leadership-organisation, even breaking away of HAM from NDA won’t bring in much impact.
Alike the HAM, RLM of Upendra Kushwaha is in a similar position, not adding much real value to the NDA. The survey found that after his quick flip-flops, shifting of loyalties, merger of the earlier RLSP in JD U and debacle in Lok Sabha elections; Upendra Kushwaha has lost major support among even the Kushwaha voters- a large section of who have shifted to the India alliance.
Left Parties- CPI, CPI (M) and CPI (ML):
The CPI used to have support across various regions of Bihar while the areas of influence of CPI M have always been very limited. Currently both parties are suffering from decline in influence other than the CPI ML, which is clawing to its support among the marginalized communities. However, the presence of left parties gives an extra edge to the India alliance due to which they still are a formidable partner in the alliance. Still, according to the survey all three left parties are likely to lose some of the seats they won last time.
AIMIM
In 2020 election, AIMIM bagged six seats in Bihar. However, it’s area of influence was limited to the Kishanganj Lok Sabha constituency and nearby seats of Araria. After 5 of Its MLAs joined the RJD, the party was losing its grip. But the Waqf amendment bill gave it a much needed life saving boost. In the previous round of survey we found Muslim voters in Simanchal praising it for its consistent opposition to the bill. Some youth voters even said about Owaisi- “ek akela sab par bhari hai”. However, in the later round, after Rahul Gandhi’s Yatra, we found that the support for AIMIM was on the decline. It also became quite evident from the fact that Bihar AIMIM leader Akhtarul Iman went to Lalu Prasad Yadav’s home demanding inclusion in the India alliance and lowered their demand to just 6 seats. AIMIM still has support among a significant section of youths in Kishanganj and Muslim dominated seats of Purnea and Araria. The survey found that even of it contests alone, the party may bag 1-3 seats in the state. However, it will remain constrained in the Kishanganj PC area only.